Implementation of an Adaptable COVID-19 Utilization and Resource Visualization Engine (CURVE) to Depict In-Hospital Resource Forecasts Over Time
Keywords:COVID-19, R-Shiny, Pandemic, Forecasting, SIR model, ARIMA, Resource Utilization
We developed an interactive web-based, decision support application that can adapt to the rapid pace of change in region-specific pandemic related variables and knowledge, thereby providing timely, accurate insights to inform a large healthcare system’s proactive response to COVID-19 hospital resource planning. We designed the COVID-19 Utilization and Resource Visualization Engine (CURVE) app to be adaptable to real-time changes as the pandemic evolved, enabling decisions to be supported by contemporary local data and accurate predictive models. To demonstrate this flexibility, we sequentially implemented a Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model that incorporates social-distancing and imperfect detection (SIR-D2), an extended-state-space Bayesian SIR model (eSIR), and a time-series model (ARIMA). CURVE improves upon other pandemic forecasting solutions by providing adaptable decision support that generates locally calibrated forecasts aligned to health system specific data to guide COVID-19 pandemic planning. The app additionally enables systematic monitoring of forecast model performance and realignment that keeps pace with the pandemic’s volatile spread and behavior. CURVE provides a flexible pandemic decision support framework that places the most accurate, locally relevant information in front of decision makers to enable health systems to be proactive and prepared.